Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

Woolway, R. Iestyn and Sharma, Sapna and Weyhenmeyer, Gesa. A and Debolskiy, Andrey and Golub, Malgorzata and Mercado-Bettín, Daniel and Perroud, Marjorie and Stepanenko, Victor and Tan, Zeli and Grant, Luke and Ladwig, Robert and Mesman, Jorrit and Moore, Tadhg Nolan and Shatwell, Tom and Vanderkelen, Inne and Austin, Jay A. and DeGasperi, Curtis L. and Dokulil, Martin and la Fuente, Sofia and Mackay, Eleanor B. and Schladow, S. Geoffrey and Watanabe, Shohei and Marce, Rafael and Pierson, Donald C. and Thiery, Wim and Jennings, Eleanor (2021) Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change. Nature Communications, 12 (2318). ISSN 2041-1723 (online)

PDF - Published Version Download (2MB)

Abstract

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	Science > Physics
Research Centres:	Centre for Freshwater and Environmental Studies
Depositing User:	Eleanor Jennings
Date Deposited:	21 Jul 2021 19:15
Last Modified:	21 Jul 2021 19:15
License:	Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 4.0
URI:	https://eprints.dkit.ie/id/eprint/745

Actions (login required)

View Item

Downloads