Ensemble modeling of lake evaporation under climate change

La Fuente Pillco, Ruth Sofia (2024) Ensemble modeling of lake evaporation under climate change. Doctoral thesis, Dundalk Institute of Technology.

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Abstract

Approximately 87% of the freshwater on Earth resides in lakes, making them a critical resource for freshwater. Due to the open-water nature of lakes, evaporation is typically the main water loss in most lakes. Therefore, understanding lake evaporation responses to climate change is of paramount importance for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies. In spite of the complexity of evaporation as a physical process, many studies simulate and quantify lake evaporation using single mechanistic models. The primary objective of this dissertation is to investigate lake evaporation responses to climate change using an ensemble of lake-climate models (i.e., different lake models driven by various climate models) under historic and future climate change scenarios. The dissertation consists of the analyses of local (i.e., lake-specific), regional (i.e., continental), and global lake evaporation simulations over the 20th and 21st centuries (1901-2099) under historic and future scenarios of climate change from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) round 2b. Firstly, an evaluation of the differences in lake evaporation estimates among the model ensemble during the historic period was undertaken for a single lake with high socio-economic and political relevance. Furthermore, future lake evaporation projections for this lake are provided by the end of the 21st century. Secondly, the analysis was upscaled to 23 lakes located in Europe, where the association between lake morphometry and evaporation was investigated. Furthermore, historic and future changes in evaporation are reported for these European lakes, along with their implications for water availability. Thirdly, global lake evaporation simulations for 13K ‘representative lakes’ are assessed for historic and future scenarios of climate change. Spatial patterns among the lake-climate model ensemble are evaluated for distinct lake thermal regions. In addition, the associated uncertainties in future evaporation projections and the changes by the end of the century are calculated. Overall, this dissertation highlights the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of lake evaporation responses to global warming and the need to inform the uncertainties associated with evaporation estimation.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Lake evaporation; Climate change.
Subjects:	Science
Research Centres:	UNSPECIFIED
Depositing User:	Sean McGreal
Date Deposited:	10 Apr 2024 14:24
Last Modified:	10 Apr 2024 14:24
License:	Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 4.0
URI:	https://eprints.dkit.ie/id/eprint/877

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